Year-End 2011 Signals Optimism in 2012
All indications point to an active 2012 selling season as the Sarasota real estate market continues to show strong signs of recovery. While I think price appreciation this year will be modest, the general consensus from industry experts is that our prices bottomed out in 2011 and will continue to hover at this level through the better part of the 2012 with nominal upward movement. Realistic motivated sellers are getting their properties sold following the advice of seasoned professional realtors who know our market well and where the current tipping point is.
Sarasota’s monthly average of 657 closed properties indicates that we currently have 6 ½ months of inventory in all price points, a good measure of the marketplace’s positive and stable course, given that a six month supply is the demarcation of equilibrium between a buyers and seller’s market. The overall inventory has declined 25% since the end of 2010, which is 1,434 less properties for sale, and 1,800 fewer properties than the end of 2009. This compression of available properties is contributing to the recent news that homebuilder confidence is rising and, after several years of limited new homes entering the market, we are hopeful some high quality product will be added to the supply chain to feed the already evident increased buyer interest.
This year 481 more properties sold than during 2010, a healthy 7% increase. We have a similar number of pending sales to start 2012 as we had to start 2011. As a result of the average month’s closings activity the past year, there is now only 5 months of inventory for properties listed under $500,000, compared with 7 months at the beginning of the year and 11 months at the beginning of 2010. In the segment between $500,000 and $1,000,000, there is a 15 month inventory vs. 19 months to begin the past year. The inventory of available luxury properties over $1,000,000 has reduced by 16%, 116 less properties since the beginning of the year and now represents a 25 month supply, down from 28 months at the beginning of the year, and now at one of the lowest levels since before the boom in the luxury market that began in 2002 and nearly 70% below the market crowning in 2006. And with the median sale price of luxury properties almost 16% higher than December 2010, (Sarasota is one of the country’s highest ranking regions in increases in home prices,) and the dwindling supply of move-in ready homes, this will be an interesting market to watch.
The Sarasota area continues to have an abundance of properties listed as Short Sales or Bank Owned. This segment represented 43% of the sales in 2011 and approximately 50% of the sales under $500,000. This is expected to continue to be the case in 2012 as more properties are finally getting through the judicial foreclosure process. Banks are clearly motivated to manage their foreclosures better and are attempting to expedite short sales, so I am optimistic the market will absorb these and the effect on overall pricing and sales will be somewhat marginalized.
As I have noted in my recent blog posts, with economic vital signs such as improvements in the unemployment rate and evidence of increased consumer and builder confidence, added to continued low interest rates and pent-up demand, the Sarasota Real Estate market appears poised for sustained recovery. When all of the factors noted in this report are blended with the many extraordinary natural, cultural and business attributes that make Sarasota the greatest community in the nation to live and work; I think we are on the verge of a steady and sustained recovery. Though elements necessary for an extended recovery are still fragile, there are many reasons to be optimistic.
The following statistical data is provided through the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) of the Sarasota Association of Realtors. The table summarizes what happened in each price segment. The Sold (Closed), Pending and Listings columns are sales and listings for the month of the report, and the Pending and Listed are the current totals of each in the MLS system. The Sold column is the total sales for the stated year. The Listed YE (Year-End) column shows the listing inventory at the end of 2011 and 2010. The SS/REO stands for properties that were either sold as a Short Sale or were owned by a lender at the time of the sale, commonly referred to as distressed sales. The amount of these distressed sales is included in the sold column.
Below is a second table showing the past seven years of sales history. 481 properties or 7% more closed this year over 2010, the highest amount since the height of the market in 2005. There has been a steady increase of closed sales each year since the low of 2006.
The Case for Real Estate Investment
This week Michael Saunders makes the case quite clearly that, despite the recent years of woe in the housing market, real estate remains a secure and desirable form of investment. In Michael’s weekly market report attached below, she cites data prepared by Steve Harney, a national real estate authority, in which he reports that over the last 12 years, “had you invested $100 in each in early 2000, by now you would have netted $140 in real estate, $112 on the Dow, $90 on the S&P and $70 on NASDAQ.”
Though our regional real estate market continues to be in a somewhat fragile state, it is well reported that 2011 saw sustained increases in key markers such as price and volume, and all indicators are pointing to further improvement in 2012. Buying a home in Sarasota has never been more “affordable”. With the prices lowered across the board plus record low interest rates…add to that the incredible lifestyle of Sarasota’s magnificent setting and infinite options for dining, entertainment and cultural activities, investing in Sarasota real estate is a safe bet!
http://www.thesaundersblog.com/southwest-florida-real-estate-take-that-dow-jones/
10 Common Real Estate Investing Mistakes
The slow but steady rebound of the housing market has brought about a rise in real estate investing. But investing in property is no easy business, although the dozens of money gurus on the Internet would tell you otherwise. There is a right way to go about it—it’s just a matter of finding it while avoiding the many pitfalls. Here are ten of the most common real estate investing mistakes and how you can avoid them.
Not having a game plan
Atlanta-based investor Andy Heller says many new investors take the plunge without a plan: they snap up good deal, then don’t know what to do with it. Eventually they’ll end up with a number of properties just gathering dust. Your first step should be choosing your strategy, then finding a home that fits it.
Expecting returns overnight
What the Internet ads don’t tell you is that a lot of work, time, and money goes into real estate. For your cash to work for you, you need to make smart decisions, develop negotiation strategies, and understand the risks of the business. It takes time, but with good direction, it’ll start paying off eventually.
Working alone
If you think real estate agents are just for first-time buyers, think again. A good network is part of any successful investor’s arsenal, both for buying his own properties and selling them off. Build strong relations with professionals in the field. Ideally, you should be on good terms with at least one realtor, a lender, a home inspector, an appraiser, and a closing attorney.
Over-valuing properties
The idea is simple: you buy a property, then you sell it off for a profit. So the point is to not pay too much for a home—but according to Heller, that’s what a lot of new investors do. Take the time you need to analyze the value of a home—how much it’s worth, what improvements will be needed—before putting your money into it.
Not doing research
First-time investors are often taken aback by the complexities of the real estate business, and this often leads to costly mistakes. Start by joining a National Real Estate Investors Association (REIA) chapter in your area. The monthly meetings touch on a wide range of topics, from buying short sales and foreclosures to leasing issues.
Counting on appreciation
A lot of buyers snapped up properties during the housing boom, thinking they can make quick profits given the strong seller’s market. But the ensuing crash taught them a hard lesson. There’s no telling where the market will go, but with sufficient research and smart analysis, you can lower your risk and find other ways to make proft.
Miscalculating costs
There’s a lot more to home ownership than the asking price. Mortgage, insurance, and property taxes add up over time. And since it takes time to lease or sell a home in today’s market, you’ll be paying them out of your own pocket for a good while. If you’re not prepared, what started out as an asset will become a liability before you know it.
Focusing on single deals
It takes more than one deal at a time to run a real estate investing business. Besides, you miss out on many opportunities by limiting your volume. Build a steady stream of prospects; with enough deals on the horizon, the good ones will naturally come to the fore.
Not having an exit strategy
So you have a plan, but what if it doesn’t work out? Make sure you have at least two backup plans so you don’t get stuck with a property. Plan A might be to work on the home before reselling it. If the market is slow, Plan B could be a lease-purchase offer. And if that doesn’t work out, you can either just rent it out. The profits may be lower with succeeding plans, but it’s better than losing money by simply holding on to it.
Underestimating rehabs
You don’t need an engineering degree to estimate costs, but you do need a good buffer. When you decide to rehab a home, always set aside twice as much time and money as what you would expect it to take—and if you can still make a profit then, it’s worth taking on. This will give you a comfortable cushion against any problems.
